USA Followed By China, UK, Japan and Germany Takes Lead: Global Business Travel Spending to Now Reach Over One And A Half Trillion Dollars In This Year, Amid Economic Uncertainty And New Trade Policy Risks

The global business travel sector is poised for significant growth, with total spending projected to reach $1.57 trillion in 2025. This marks a 6.6% year-over-year increase, despite ongoing economic challenges and trade uncertainties. The United States, China, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, India, South Korea, France, Italy, and Australia are expected to be the top spenders, accounting for a significant portion of global business travel expenses. While the pace of growth has moderated due to geopolitical and economic risks, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, with global spending forecast to surpass $2 trillion by 2029. This shift is driven by changes in corporate travel behavior, evolving trade patterns, and an increasing reliance on technology to optimize business travel.

Whereas, the 2025 forecast does suggest significant growth, it’s also a cautious forecast, with its underpinning being challenged via a background of inflationary pressures, global trade wars and the potential for slow-down within major markets. Global trade tensions, in particular, have been a significant drag on expectations for travel spending, resulting in a downward revision from earlier forecasts.

Despite the headwinds, the global business travel market will exceed $2 trillion by 2029, though one year later than forecasted prior. This sustained growth will be the result of evolving corporate travel sentiment, trade movements and increasing demand for more intelligent, affordable travel solutions by smarter businesses.

Economic Uncertainty and its Impact on Global Business Travel

The forecasted growth for 2025 is a result of several key factors, including the ongoing economic recovery post-pandemic and the global rebound in trade and investment activities. However, these positive trends are tempered by the continued economic risk driven by geopolitical issues, trade policy uncertainty, and inflation.

2025 was originally forecasted to grow by 10.4% year-over-year, but that forecast was revised down to 6.6% growth as trade policy uncertainty and economic turbulence continued. Some of these downside risks have put the brakes on growth; numbered among the latter are disruptions to supply chains, cost pressures from inflation, and policy risks, mainly associated with global trade disputes. Growth forecast for 2026 is also lowered to 8.1 percent, down from 9.2 percent, suggesting the recovery would come, but not as fast as previously thought.

It underscores that international trade tensions have emerged as a leading risk for business travel spending going forward. While every government tries to steer their way through difficult trade negotiations and policy making, the lack of clarity on tariffs and cross-border trade rules may hamper the recovery of the travel sector.

Regional and Sectoral Variance in Growth Projections

The business travel growth estimates do not break down evenly across all regions and sectors. Although worldwide spending will hit $1.57 trillion, how that money is spread across geographies and industries will vary widely.

The 15 leading markets in terms of business travel spending in 2025 are expected to account for a combined $1.31 trillion. The United States and China will also remain leaders in that area, with the United States projected to lead accounting for $395.4 billion and China with an estimated $373.1 billion. Collectively, the two will make up 58% of total business travel spending worldwide in 2025. Next major markets as that are in the top five, are also Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom.

India, South Korea and Turkey are expected to grow more quickly than the rest of the world, providing further evidence of the growing relevance and role these emerging nations will play in the global business travel market. Conversely, spending in business travel in Spain and the Netherlands, and possibly other European markets, will grow less or fall slightly as a result of the slowing European economy and disrupted trade.

Sector-Specific Trends in Business Travel Spending

Different industry sectors will experience varying growth in business travel spending, with some sectors facing greater risks and others benefitting from ongoing economic changes. For example, manufacturing and wholesale trade—which account for nearly a third of global business travel spending—are particularly vulnerable to trade tensions and the impact of global supply chain disruptions. These sectors may face slower growth or even declines in spending if geopolitical risks escalate further.

In contrast, sectors like professional services, arts and entertainment, and information technology have shown resilience, with some industries even surpassing pre-pandemic spending levels. These sectors are expected to continue their strong growth, as demand for services in these industries increases alongside the ongoing digital transformation of the global economy.

The mining and information and communication sectors are expected to experience some of the strongest growth in business travel spending in the coming years, driven by technological advancements and increased investment in global infrastructure projects. Conversely, agriculture faces a weaker outlook due to shrinking access to export markets and ongoing disruptions to trade policies.

Business Travel Sentiment: Optimism Despite Challenges

Despite the uncertainty facing the global economy, business travel remains business as usual for consumers around the world, according to a new survey of more than 7,300 business travelers. The report also found that 86% of travelers continued to find value in their trips, with 74% of respondents taking between one and five trips in the last year. In fact, over 80% of business travelers are traveling as much or more than they did pre-pandemic, demonstrating a high degree of confidence in the future of business travel.

Travel spending is increasing, too. Average travel spending has also risen, with the average spending per trip hitting $1,128 USD, compared to $834 USD last year. Moreover, over 67% of travelers leverage expense management systems to cover travel expenses, while 64% have begun to use mobile wallets for their corporate expenditure – demonstrating an increasing demand for intuitive, digital-first payment processes.

Looking to the Future of Business Travel

The global business travel outlook is largely shaped by evolving corporate strategies and the increasing reliance on data-driven decision-making. With more companies focusing on cost efficiency and sustainable travel practices, the business travel landscape is undergoing significant shifts. As a result, businesses are embracing AI-powered solutions, digital booking tools, and automated expense management systems that reduce administrative overhead while improving compliance.

Overall, the future of business travel appears resilient, with growth expected to continue, albeit at a moderate pace. The global business travel market is forecast to reach $2 trillion by 2029, supported by the steady recovery in travel volume, strategic industry investments, and the expansion of emerging markets.

Conclusion

The global business travel spending forecast for 2025—$1.57 trillion—indicates ongoing recovery for the industry despite economic risks and trade tensions. Even if it may take longer to flourish as initially envisaged, the long-term prospects are good and we expect to see the pace of growth ramping up as geopolitical matters are resolved. For the business traveller, this means a time when more seamless travel and data-driven products and services are increasingly transforming the way we book and conduct travel business, making it clear the sector will continue to be a driving force in the global economy.